Even as a senior UN climate change official observed that India is experiencing “a punishing summer of extreme heat” induced by climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), another UN agency, warned in a new report that global average temperatures are likely to remain at record levels, or close to them, over the next five years with 2027 likely to become the warmest year during the period.
The report, published in Geneva and a copy of which The Plurals has, states that “Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.” It continues: “It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.”
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, issued annually by the WMO, puts together global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres, led by the UK Met Office.
India to experience more extremes
The report shows that almost half of India – entire north, and parts of central, western and eastern India – are likely to have a high average temperature rise during the next five years compared to the pre-industrial benchmark.
“India’s baseline is already 25°C compared to the global average of 13 to 15°C. Hence, any incremental addition over the higher Indian baseline, as predicted by the report, will significantly increase the heat stress within India, particularly for its vulnerable population with high exposure,” KJ Ramesh, the former director-general at Indian Metrological Department (IMD), told this correspondent on Thursday evening.
The official pointed out that although India is aggressively pursuing solar energy, the country still depends heavily on coal and other fossil fuel, which is likely to increase the heat footprint.
Climate change main culprit: UNFCC
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), spoke about climate change contributing to the excessive summer heat in India. “Large parts of India are already experiencing a punishing summer of extreme heat, with severe human and economic impacts, and the main culprit is worsening climate change, largely driven by the world burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas,” said Stiell.
Adding that the heat is additionally taxing for those living in homes without cooling or working long hours, the official said solar and other renewable energy sources have helped India meet day-time peaks so far but warned that may not be enough. “Even so, we are likely to see an increase in heat extremes over India and around the world in the future, as the impacts of the climate crisis get worse,” Stiell said.
Fiery five in pipeline
“Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2026-2030. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2026 and 2030 is predicted to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900,” says the WMO report.
“It is very likely … that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It is also likely … that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average,” the report mentions as one of its key findings.
However, it adds: “It is exceptionally unlikely … that any year will exceed 2°C of warming in the next five years.” Warming of 2°C above the pre-industrial levels of 1850-1900 is the tipping point for the planet, according to scientists, and the Paris Agreement decided unanimously to contain the temperature within 2°C, preferably within 1.5°C.
El Niño is the driver
The WMO report points out, based on five-year predicted average temperature, that the whole tropics indicate a preference for El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report.
The Arctic is going to be affected in particular with its temperatures over the next five extended winters (November-March) predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020, an anomaly “more than three and half times that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period”, according to the report.