More than 40 leading scientists of the world issued a statement on May 21 warning that global efforts to reduce methane emissions and deliver on the Paris Agreement are being undermined with the justification of significantly weakened climate targets.
The 42 signatories to the statement include 11 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors, Mark Howden, vice chairperson of IPCC Working Group II, Drew Shindell, chairperson of the 2021 UNEP Global Methane Assessment, and the scientists behind the “hockey stick” climate graph and the Planetary Boundaries framework. The scientists warn that alternative approaches such as ‘Global Warming Potential Star (GWP*)’ “are being misused to justify significantly weakened climate targets, which are targeting “temperature neutrality” or “no additional warming”. These approaches “allow major methane emitters to continue producing large quantities of greenhouse gases”, and continue “their contribution to warming”, while (misleadingly) claiming “climate neutrality”, the statement says.
‘Neutrality’ not enough
Several countries are either considering or have adopted the milder climate targets. Ireland is about to decide whether to adopt a carbon budget, due to be published in the summer this year, based on the goal of ‘temperature neutrality’. If ‘temperature neutrality’ is adopted, Ireland would be allowed to emit an extra 9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent between 2031 and 2035.
The first country to globally adopt climate targets based on “no additional warming” was New Zealand, which adopted the target in 2025. This led to a significant weakening of its methane reduction target. The new target was a 14-24% reduction in ‘biogenic’ (non-fossil) methane by 2050. Previously the target was 24–47% reduction by 2050.
“A ‘temperature neutrality’ approach to climate target setting amounts to backsliding on Ireland’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and it is not a reflection of ‘highest possible ambition’. Agricultural methane accounts for over a quarter of Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions and is helping to fuel the climate crisis that is already hitting Irish farmers hard,” said Róisín Moriarty, research fellow, Climate Science & Policy, University College Cork in Ireland. “Irish farmers need a climate action roadmap designed around robust and transparent climate targets. Temperature neutrality is not sufficient. Adoption of targets based on such an approach delays the transformation of Irish agriculture that is needed for rapid and substantial reductions in methane to be achieved,” Moriarty added.
Ambition should return
The scientists have urged policymakers to “Reject the inappropriate application of GWP*, including using ‘temperature neutrality’ as a basis for national targets or reporting”. “By focusing only on changes in warming over time, rather than total warming, inappropriate applications of GWP* and ‘no additional warming’.” methane emissions are not reduced in the required degree, countries and companies with high historical methane emissions are rewarded and countries with low emissions who need space to develop are penalised. This risks weakening ambition “below what can readily be achieved by high-emitting countries”, says the statement.
The scientists have reminded the governments of the Global Methane Pledge and asked them to reaffirm it. The pledge targets to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. The Paris Agreement requires global methane emissions reductions of at least 47–60% by 2050.
The agreement also calls for countries pursuing the “highest possible ambition”, which means that higher-income countries with higher baseline emissions are expected to cut Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions faster than the global average. The major part of global agricultural methane emissions occurs in high and upper-middle income countries. The per capita agri-methane emissions of countries such as New Zealand, Ireland, Uruguay and Australia are far higher than their global equitable share, says a study co-authored by a few of the signatories to the statement.
Reducing methane emissions key
The statement urges companies to “End misleading claims of ‘climate neutrality’ associated with products with methane-emitting production. , such as foods or fossil gas”. Techniques such as this “downplay the significant climate impacts of methane-intensive sectors”.
“Curbing methane emissions — especially from the food and agricultural sectors — is a critical part of stopping climate change. With nearly one-third of current warming driven by methane emissions, and the food system being the largest contributor, we simply cannot ignore this any longer,” said Jonathan Foley, executive director. Project Drawdown said. “Fortunately, we have a variety of tools to do this, ranging from shifting diets and curbing food loss and waste to improved animal husbandry, better manure management, and capping landfills. By stopping these methane sources, we have a powerful ‘Emergency Brake’ on climate change, helping us avoid disastrous levels of warming in the coming decades.”