Electrification of 35% of global energy demand by 2035 is within “striking distance”, says a new report by International Energy Agency (IEA). This “35 by 35” target would be possible using existing technologies and it could cut global energy import bills by more than USD 400 billion, reducing household energy bills by 15%, the report claims.
IEA, the global energy watchdog, published the report in the run-up to COP 31, at the request of Türkiye – the COP31 Presidential country – and Australia, the COP31 Presidential country of Negotiations. The electrification target to raise the energy demand met by electricity from just over 20% now to 35% by 2035; was unveiled by the COP31 Presidency in June at the SB 64 meeting at Bonn, Germany.
“(The) report gives us the evidence we have all been waiting for to show that faster electrification is a triple win. A win for cheaper bills, a win for less emissions and pollution, and a win for cutting the huge fossil fuel import bill many countries face today,” says Dave Jones, co-founder of Ember, a global energy think tank.
The climate activists, while hailing the development, cautioned that the enhanced electrification target should not be used as a cover for failing to establish a UN-finalised roadmap for cutting fossil fuels; a demand of several developing and even developed countries as well as civil society organisations. “We will welcome the COP31 Presidency’s proposal to place a global target of 35% electrification of final energy demand by 2035 as a key element of COP31 (but) …Such a target should be treated as a floor for collective action on which countries build. But electrification is a means, not an end,” wrote more than 90 civil society organisations in a joint letter to COP 31 presidency on September 24.
Transport, buildings and industry identified as key sectors for electrification
The IEA research looks at the electrification potential of key sectors. These include transport, buildings and industry. IEA publishes a “High Electrification Scenario” (HES) against these three main scenarios in its annual World Energy Outlook, the next edition of which will come out in November 2026.
“The transport sector is at present much less electrified than the buildings and industry sectors, and it sees the largest relative rise, with the electrification rate increasing in the HES from 2% today to 13% by 2035,” says the IEA report.
“In buildings, electrification is led by the uptake of heat pumps in regions with significant heating needs. In addition, the electrification of cooking is advanced by the deployment of induction cookstoves,” the report continues. “In industry, electric technologies are competitive today for several applications in many countries, including the production of low- and medium-temperature heat in non-energy-intensive industries and the generation of mechanical energy,” the report states.
Scanner on the claim and question on source of electricity
Experts have welcomed the claim that technologies are prepared for the “electrifying” jump, but have shown concern about current progress rate meeting the projections.
“Electrification is the most important lever we have to build a clean, secure and affordable energy system. Today’s report shows the technologies are ready and the economic case is strong, but current progress falls well short of what is needed,” says Jan Rosenow, professor of Energy and Climate Policy at Oxford University. “We are still in the middle of an energy crisis with crippling oil and gas prices and governments must now act across every sector, from buildings and transport to industry,” Rosenow added.
Other experts have looked at the 2035 projection against the larger concerns of sustainability and equity, and how the electricity will be distributed in the developed and developing worlds.
“The 35 by 35 target will only represent climate progress if it is powered by sustainable renewable energy. Success cannot be measured simply by how much of the world’s final energy consumption becomes electric,” says Janet Milongo, senior manager, Energy Transition, CAN International. The questions to be asked are what generates that electricity, who has access to it, who owns the infrastructure and whether it is helping countries to transition away from fossil fuels, points out the expert.
“Developing countries must have the resources and capacity to own, govern and shape their electricity systems in the public interest,” Milongo adds.
Report highlights EV gains, urges grid upgradation
Other than projecting fuel-importing countries cutting down their import bills by more than $400 billion a year from 2025 levels and average household energy bills falling around 15% by 2035, the report points at other advantages and also requirements.
Electric Vehicles already save 2.3 million barrels of oil a day, which is more than the volume that bypassed the Strait of Hormuz via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline this summer, the report highlights.
Infrastructure needs to be upgraded. Grids need to be modernised and expanded 40% faster to 2035 than the pace of the past decade to connect new supply and rapidly growing demand.
The report warns that based on today’s policy settings, the global electrification rate is likely to reach around 30% by 2035.