Climate change is likely to score one over Messi and Ronaldo this World Cup.
A report by Climate Central, a global agency working on climate change, says climate change may impact players’ performance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be held from June 11 to July 19 and jointly hosted by 16 cities: 11 in the US, three in Mexico and two in Canada.
The report analysed the probability of temperatures rising above 28°C, the limit felt to adversely affect player performance adversely, and has found that 97 of the 104 scheduled matches at the world’s greatest football tournament are likely to encounter this heat.
The temperatures may slow down the matches and hamper the styles of Lionel Messi from Argentina and Cristiano Ronaldo from Portugal, two giants of the game.
Portugal to feel the heat
The research claims Argentina faces a 68% chance of “performance-impairing heat” playing in Kansas, the US, while Portugal, playing in matches scheduled in Houston, the US, has a 96% likelihood of facing debilitating heat. Other countries playing in US locations such as Houston and Dallas, including Croatia, Curacao, DR Congo, England, Germany and Japan face a high probability of experiencing heat at the level predicted for Portugal.
Australia, playing matches in Vancouver, Canada, has a 1% likelihood of feeling the high heat. Venues in Mexico and Canada promise to be significantly less hot than US locations.
Older players, such as Messi and Ronaldo, are also more likely to be affected by the heat.
Half of matches may be affected
“By examining the odds of temperatures exceeding 82.4°F (28°C) — a threshold linked to declines in player performance — researchers found that 97 of the 104 scheduled matches now face a higher probability of encountering these conditions,” reads the report, a copy of which is with The Plurals.
“Nearly half of the matches have at least a 50% likelihood of experiencing heat that can impair performance. In 26 of those matches, climate change increases the likelihood by at least 10 percentage points,” says the report.
“Previous research shows temperatures above 82.4°F (28°C) can reduce sprint frequency, total distance covered, and recovery time, impacting not only player performance and safety, but also match tempo, tactics, and overall style of play,” the report claims.
“The World Cups of the past won’t happen again — not because the players have changed, but because the planet has,” stated Shel Winkely, meteorologist at Climate Central.
Slowdown effect
Climate experts, players and sports analysts have expressed concern about the possible impact of high heat on the matches.
“In football, a typical midfielder runs well over 10K (6 miles) for each match. And it’s a high-intensity effort, with directional changes and short bursts of acceleration,” said John Toohey-Morales, honorary member of the American Meteorological Society. “Climate Central’s analysis shows how these elite athletes will likely to be slowed by hotter temperatures”.
Players’ heat safety demand to FIFA
Morten Thorsby, playing at the World Cup 2026 as part of the Norwegian national team, said: “This analysis makes clear that rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the game itself. When heat impacts sprinting, recovery, and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played – and not for the better.” He added: “That’s exactly why I signed the players’ letter to FIFA last week. We need to take these risks seriously,” added Morten.
Professional players from 21 countries submitted an open letter to FIFA, asking for stricter heat safety protocols for the 2026 tournament. Over 100 current and former players, with the support of climate scientists, have told FIFA that the current heat safety protocols are inadequate and players are at extreme risk of heat stress.
Players at risk when pushing limits
Professor Mike Tipton, a sports and health expert at the University of Portsmouth, pointed out: “Playing in temperatures above 28°C changes the game. We see reduced intensity, less sprinting and potentially fewer chances being created. As temperatures climb further, the risks also increase.” He added: “Prolonged exposure and dehydration can lead to heat exhaustion or even heat stroke, particularly in high-stakes matches where players are more likely to push beyond their natural limits.”
“Unless we stop burning fossil fuels, the future of the competition won’t be about who plays best, but about who can tolerate the heat,” said another expert.
“Heat, beyond a threshold value, definitely affects the performance quotient, particularly of older players. If someone is used to performing 10 sprints in a match, now , particularly an older player, he may be able to do seven sprints in higher heat,” said former Indian footballer Crompton Dutta to The Plurals on Wednesday evening.