World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a severe warning about El Niño conditions increasing the risk of extreme weather immediately and impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns. The El Niño conditions are developing fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific.
On Tuesday, a new WMO update on El Niño and La Niña conditions suggests an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. The event is at least 90% likely to continue until at least November, the update adds. The El Niño conditions will be possibly strong, but at least moderate, it says, though the precise peak strength and timing of the conditions have not been yet identified.
The El Niño warning coincides with an assessment of rising temperatures in India, in particular warmer winters, increasing night-time temperatures and more frequent terminal heat events, and disrupting wheat growth cycles across the major wheat producing states. The study by Climate Trends, an India-based climate research organisation, warns of food security concerns as a result of this disruption.
India has started to feel the heat
These warnings follow just days after the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had revised the 2026 monsoon forecast down to 90% from the earlier 92% of the long period average, even as India continues to experience extreme heat and heat waves in several parts.
The WMO El Niño updates are considered the most authoritative source of information globally for governments, organisations and climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, health, energy and water management. The updates are based on WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world arriving at a consensus and are produced through collaboration between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).
End addiction to fossil fuels: UN
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a video statement. “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,” he continued. “The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” Guterres added.
Tell-tale temperature trail
WMO issued the warnings following observations from late April to mid-May of the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific, the monitoring reference area, approaching El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index, the atmospheric component of El Niño, is also consistent with developing El Niño conditions.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” Saulo added. The global average temperature in 2024 was found to be highest since 1850s, since the time the global temperature was first recorded. WMO has predicted few days back that record is likely to be broken in 2027.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” Saulo said.