One third of the current habitats of animal species on land could experience several types of climate-driven extreme events, such as heatwaves, fire and floods, if global warming keeps rising into the latter half of the century, according to a new study published on Friday in ‘Nature Ecology & Evolution’. It has been authored by a global team of 18 scientists and led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
“I think climate change, and in particular extreme events, are still really being underestimated when it comes to conservation planning. It’s not just going to be a gradual shift of temperature over many years,” said lead author of the report Stefanie Heinicke, a postdoctoral researcher at the institute.
The report says that just one extreme weather event can destroy animal populations, but when multiple extreme events occur one after the other, the impact on animals and their habitats are compounded and more devastating. It mentions that the 2019-2020 fires in Australia led to 27-40 per cent greater decline in plant and animal species in areas where a drought had occurred immediately before the fires. The way forward would be to rapidly cut fossil fuel use and reduce emissions to Net Zero, which could largely prevent these impacts. If the latter half of the century begins to see a decline in global temperature, the impact
of multiple extreme weather on land animal habitats events by 2085 would be just 9 per cent. “There’s still a lot of difference we can make by cutting emissions as fast as we can from today,” said Heinicke.
New climate impact model
The report uses outputs from climate impact models, which can predict more complex impacts from climate change beyond rising heat, such as on flooding and wildfire. Using this model, the authors claim that by 2050, if global warming continues to rise into the latter half of
the century, 74 per cent of current animal habitats on land will be exposed to heatwaves, 16 per cent to wildfire, 8 per cent to droughts and 3 per cent to river floods. This includes key biodiversity areas in the Amazon basin, Africa and Southeast Asia. “The wildfire projections being so significant is really notable. I don’t know of another study that has projected wildfire exposure for animals yet, so seeing that there is a bigger threat from fires than drought for example. This was a significant blind spot,” said Katja Frieler, a co-author of the paper. Frieler leads the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and is a research department head at Potsdam Institute.
Heatwaves most damaging
Heatwaves are among the most frequent and damaging extreme weather events. The 2019/20 Australian heatwave killed more than 72,000 flying foxes. The study says that in 2000 just 18 per cent of species’ habitats were exposed to heatwaves.
Species with small habitat ranges face severe risks, such as the Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo, which declined 60 per cent due to the 2011 Western Australian heatwave.
In 2000. no bird species faced having more than 75 per cent of their habitat range exposed to heatwaves. This number would rise to nearly 3,800 bird species by 2085 if the Paris Agreement targets were carried out, but more than 9,800 bird species if the world keeps heating as it is doing now. This study is possibly the first that quantifies wildfire exposure for animals. In 2020, wildfires in the Pantanal wetlands, across
Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, killed an estimated 17 million vertebrate animals. In 2000 only 11 amphibian species globally had more than 25 per cent of their habitat range exposed to wildfires. At our current rate of emissions over 3,400 amphibian species would be affected; but if the Paris Agreement is adhered to the number would be nearly 500 species by 2085.
The Amazon basin, southern Africa and Southeast Asia are being projected as the regions for increased wildfire frequency.