India, which has been shying away long from announcing its emission cut targets and missed the 2025 deadlines, including at COP 30 at Belem, Brazil, has finally announced the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 targets on Wednesday after approval by a Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The announcement, which has come amid the fuel crisis triggered by the US–Israel war on Iran, has evoked a range of responses within climate experts in India and across the world.
While several experts hailed the announcement as a development strategy and saw it as a broad hint to shift from coal and other fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable ones, many others have pointed out that India’s numbers are conservative and the country has chosen to play safe with the target, perhaps constrained by the uncertainty fuelled by the war. Fuel, incidentally, is quickly turning into the pivot of the war with Iran effectively blocking Hormuz Strait, a major route for fuel transportation globally.
On Thursday Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, has put India’s NDC announcement in perspective by hailing India for the decision, but also reminding the need to “exceed” the target. “India is showing that clean energy growth and economic growth can go hand in hand. The country is becoming a solar superpower and is positioning itself as a global leader in renewable energy manufacturing. This new climate plan will deepen India’s economic advantage by targeting a growing share of non-fossil energy, ” stated Stell. But he added that: “The sooner India meets and exceeds its targets, the more jobs, prosperity and national economic strength it will create,” a broad hint to the country to become more ambitious with its emission cut.
Indian NDC numbers
India’s commitments include reduction of emission intensity by 47 per cent of its GDP by 2035 from 2005 level, to achieve 60 per cent non-fossil fuel-based electric power installed capacity by 2035, and to raise the level of carbon sink from 2005 by 3.5 to 4.0 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and other warming gases through generation of forest and tree cover by 2035.
The Cabinet decision further pointed out that India’s commitments are aligned with vision of Viksit Bharat at 2047, a much publicised tenet of the Union government, and Net-Zero by 2070, which was announced by Indian Prime Minister at Glasgow climate summit in 2021.
Proactive steps
UNFCCC originally asked the countries to submit the NDC 3.0 by early 2025, and subsequently extended the deadline till COP 30 held at Belem, Brazil in November. India remained one of the few countries that had failed to submit the NDC within the scheduled window and had faced flak from other countries and climate activists during Belem COP.
“While the global community expected India to release its NDC ahead of last November’s Climate Summit, the timing of this announcement — amid the energy volatility caused by the war in Iran — underscores a profound strategic resolve. By capitalising on the momentum that saw it achieve previous renewable energy goals years ahead of schedule, India is turning geopolitical stress into a catalyst for energy sovereignty,” opined Harjeet Singh, climate activist and Founding Director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.
“At a time when conflict and energy security concerns are pulling countries away from climate commitments, India’s new NDCs send an important signal. A targeted 60 per cent share of non-fossil electricity capacity in 2035 suggests that while India has raised its ambition to decarbonise the power sector, it is also doubling down on energy security and affordability for hundreds of millions of its citizens,” observed Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). “It is important to note that India’s power markets are rapidly evolving. If that trajectory is maintained and supply chain disruptions ease, we estimate that India will exceed its target, as it has repeatedly done in the past,’’ Ghosh expressed hope.
India can do better
“India’s new 2035 climate targets underestimate the country’s potential for transformative clean energy growth. Under current plans, the target of 60 per cent clean power capacity will be achieved before 2030, rather than by 2035,” explained Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst and co-founder, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“Continuing the current clean energy growth at rates already achieved in 2024-25 would enable India to peak power sector emissions well before 2030 and significantly slow down its CO2 emission growth rates. Yet, the carbon intensity target announced today allows for an acceleration of emissions growth compared with past rates … India’s booming clean energy industry is highly likely to deliver much faster progress than policymakers were prepared to commit to today,” the expert further argued.
“Similarly, India’s target of reducing emission intensity by 47 per cent by 2035 reflects a calibrated approach. As a fast-growing and emerging economy, India’s intensity-based target balances development needs with climate ambition. In the current geopolitical context of supply chain disruptions and energy security concerns, this target provides flexibility while remaining aligned with its broader aspirational goals and long-term Net-Zero pathway,”
Myllyvirta reasoned.
India’s Central Electricity Authority in the National Power Adequacy Plan estimates that by 2035-36, nearly 70 per cent of electricity capacity will come from non-fossil sources. However, its formal commitment as approved under the NDC 3.0 under the UN framework sets a lower target of 60 per cent. “This shows that the government is taking a measured approach – deliberately conservative in its global pledges, perhaps conditioned by the war linked developments in the middle east,” an expert said.
While announcing NDC 3.0, the Union government communique also referred to the “earlier than schedule” target achievement, “India’s original climate commitments i.e NDC submitted in 2015 (had) targets by 2030 of 33–35 per cent reduction in the emissions intensity of GDP and 40 per cent share of non-fossil resources based electric power installed capacity, both of which were met, 11 years and 9 years ahead of the committed timelines,” it said. It added: “Our emissions intensity has since reduced by 36 per cent during 2005 to 2020 … on enhancing share of non-fossil fuel energy resources in installed electric power capacity, the country has achieved 52.57 per cent non-fossil capacity (by February 2026), successfully meeting the target five years ahead of the timeline”.
Labanya Jena, director of Climate and Sustainability Initiative, has pointed out that the new NDC targets, particularly the carbon emissions goal of 47 per cent, “is not very optimistic”.
“Given that the US has backed out and the EU has also gone on a backfoot on climate, the global effort has already been waning. So India also seems to have committed in a cautious manner,” the expert said.
Vibhuti Garg, Director South Asia, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) pointed out that though India’s revised NDCs are a step in the right direction, “they fall short of the ambition required at this stage of the energy transition”.
“With non-fossil fuel capacity already crossing around 52 per cent by 2025–26, a target of 60 per cent by 2035 does not adequately reflect either the pace of progress or the scale of opportunity ahead,” he said.
Jury out on India announcing new emission cut targets amid ongoing war
Indian domestic target more stringent compared to international commitment
India, which has been shying away long from announcing its emission cut targets and missed the 2025 deadlines, including at COP 30 at Belem, Brazil, has finally announced the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 targets on Wednesday after approval by a Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The announcement, which has come amid the fuel crisis triggered by the US–Israel war on Iran, has evoked a range of responses within climate experts in India and across the world.
While several experts hailed the announcement as a development strategy and saw it as a broad hint to shift from coal and other fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable ones, many others have pointed out that India’s numbers are conservative and the country has chosen to play safe with the target, perhaps constrained by the uncertainty fuelled by the war. Fuel, incidentally, is quickly turning into the pivot of the war with Iran effectively blocking Hormuz Strait, a major route for fuel transportation globally.
On Thursday Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, has put India’s NDC announcement in perspective by hailing India for the decision, but also reminding the need to “exceed” the target. “India is showing that clean energy growth and economic growth can go hand in hand. The country is becoming a solar superpower and is positioning itself as a global leader in renewable energy manufacturing. This new climate plan will deepen India’s economic advantage by targeting a growing share of non-fossil energy, ” stated Stell. But he added that: “The sooner India meets and exceeds its targets, the more jobs, prosperity and national economic strength it will create,” a broad hint to the country to become more ambitious with its emission cut.
Indian NDC numbers
India’s commitments include reduction of emission intensity by 47 per cent of its GDP by 2035 from 2005 level, to achieve 60 per cent non-fossil fuel-based electric power installed capacity by 2035, and to raise the level of carbon sink from 2005 by 3.5 to 4.0 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and other warming gases through generation of forest and tree cover by 2035.
The Cabinet decision further pointed out that India’s commitments are aligned with vision of Viksit Bharat at 2047, a much publicised tenet of the Union government, and Net-Zero by 2070, which was announced by Indian Prime Minister at Glasgow climate summit in 2021.
Proactive steps
UNFCCC originally asked the countries to submit the NDC 3.0 by early 2025, and subsequently extended the deadline till COP 30 held at Belem, Brazil in November. India remained one of the few countries that had failed to submit the NDC within the scheduled window and had faced flak from other countries and climate activists during Belem COP.
“While the global community expected India to release its NDC ahead of last November’s Climate Summit, the timing of this announcement — amid the energy volatility caused by the war in Iran — underscores a profound strategic resolve. By capitalising on the momentum that saw it achieve previous renewable energy goals years ahead of schedule, India is turning geopolitical stress into a catalyst for energy sovereignty,” opined Harjeet Singh, climate activist and Founding Director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.
“At a time when conflict and energy security concerns are pulling countries away from climate commitments, India’s new NDCs send an important signal. A targeted 60 per cent share of non-fossil electricity capacity in 2035 suggests that while India has raised its ambition to decarbonise the power sector, it is also doubling down on energy security and affordability for hundreds of millions of its citizens,” observed Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). “It is important to note that India’s power markets are rapidly evolving. If that trajectory is maintained and supply chain disruptions ease, we estimate that India will exceed its target, as it has repeatedly done in the past,’’ Ghosh expressed hope.
India can do better
“India’s new 2035 climate targets underestimate the country’s potential for transformative clean energy growth. Under current plans, the target of 60 per cent clean power capacity will be achieved before 2030, rather than by 2035,” explained Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst and co-founder, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“Continuing the current clean energy growth at rates already achieved in 2024-25 would enable India to peak power sector emissions well before 2030 and significantly slow down its CO2 emission growth rates. Yet, the carbon intensity target announced today allows for an acceleration of emissions growth compared with past rates … India’s booming clean energy industry is highly likely to deliver much faster progress than policymakers were prepared to commit to today,” the expert further argued.
“Similarly, India’s target of reducing emission intensity by 47 per cent by 2035 reflects a calibrated approach. As a fast-growing and emerging economy, India’s intensity-based target balances development needs with climate ambition. In the current geopolitical context of supply chain disruptions and energy security concerns, this target provides flexibility while remaining aligned with its broader aspirational goals and long-term Net-Zero pathway,”
Myllyvirta reasoned.
India’s Central Electricity Authority in the National Power Adequacy Plan estimates that by 2035-36, nearly 70 per cent of electricity capacity will come from non-fossil sources. However, its formal commitment as approved under the NDC 3.0 under the UN framework sets a lower target of 60 per cent. “This shows that the government is taking a measured approach – deliberately conservative in its global pledges, perhaps conditioned by the war linked developments in the middle east,” an expert said.
While announcing NDC 3.0, the Union government communique also referred to the “earlier than schedule” target achievement, “India’s original climate commitments i.e NDC submitted in 2015 (had) targets by 2030 of 33–35 per cent reduction in the emissions intensity of GDP and 40 per cent share of non-fossil resources based electric power installed capacity, both of which were met, 11 years and 9 years ahead of the committed timelines,” it said. It added: “Our emissions intensity has since reduced by 36 per cent during 2005 to 2020 … on enhancing share of non-fossil fuel energy resources in installed electric power capacity, the country has achieved 52.57 per cent non-fossil capacity (by February 2026), successfully meeting the target five years ahead of the timeline”.
Labanya Jena, director of Climate and Sustainability Initiative, has pointed out that the new NDC targets, particularly the carbon emissions goal of 47 per cent, “is not very optimistic”.
“Given that the US has backed out and the EU has also gone on a backfoot on climate, the global effort has already been waning. So India also seems to have committed in a cautious manner,” the expert said.
Vibhuti Garg, Director South Asia, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) pointed out that though India’s revised NDCs are a step in the right direction, “they fall short of the ambition required at this stage of the energy transition”.
“With non-fossil fuel capacity already crossing around 52 per cent by 2025–26, a target of 60 per cent by 2035 does not adequately reflect either the pace of progress or the scale of opportunity ahead,” he said.
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