A population spread across the globe, close to three times the size of India’s current population, is likely to be subjected to extreme heat within two and half decades, finds a recently published report on research carried out by scientists at the Oxford University.
The report says that the percentage of the world’s population experiencing extreme heat could double by 2050, compared to 2010, due to business-as-usual use of fossil fuel with India being one of the most impacted countries.
The report has just been published in the journal ‘Nature Sustainability’, a leading global publication in environmental studies. It has been claimed to be “a wake-up call” by one of the report contributors.
If global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, projected to occur in about 25 years’ time, assuming the continuation of the use of all kinds of fossil fuels, then around 3.79 billion individuals are likely to face extreme heat, says the report, a copy of which is with The Plurals. In 2010, the number of people affected by extreme heat was 1.54 billion.
Globally extreme heat is known as a period of severely hot weather, often defined by temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) for several days.
The Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos and Brazil are likely to see the greatest increase in cooling needs per person, while Canada, the Russian Federation, Finland, Sweden and Norway will see the greatest decrease in heating needs per person, as the weather will get rapidly warmer.
A wake-up call
India has been found to be at the top of the ladder considering number of people ‘expected’ to be affected in 2050. “India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines are projected to have the largest populations living under extreme heat, living under more than 3,000 cooling degree days (CDD)”, said report lead author Jesus Lizana. Cooling Degree Days (CDD) measure the energy needed to keep indoor environments at safe temperatures. “A threshold of 3,000-plus CDD indicates prolonged, intense annual heat,” states the report.
“Our study shows most of the changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold…many homes may need air conditioning to be installed in the next five years, but temperatures will continue to rise long after that if we hit 2 degrees Celsius of global warming,” adds Lizana.
“Our findings should be a wake-up call,” says Radhika Khosla, a professor and an author of the study, adding that “ … Overshooting 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming. The report says that Net zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing this trend for ever hotter days. It is imperative politicians regain the initiative towards it.”
Despite the Paris climate agreement in 2015 mandated to keep the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, at most 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era benchmark, the global temperature has already risen tantalisingly close to 1.5-degrees Celsius. The report points out that the percentage of the “world’s population living in regions defined as extremely cool could halve from 14 per cent to 7 per cent,” as fewer places will be “extremely cool”.
India to face greater vulnerability
The report highlights that India is among the countries projected to experience the largest population exposure to extreme heat conditions under global warming scenarios. “These findings emphasise the growing vulnerability of India’s population to extreme heat and the need for targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of rising temperatures,” analyses the report.
“The Oxford study highlights a critical climate tipping point: without swiftly ending fossil fuel dependence, extreme heat — which is already fatal — could threaten twice the current global population by 2050, particularly in vulnerable nations such as India…These areas, characterised by high population density and inadequate infrastructure, face elevated threats to health, agriculture, and economies, increasing inequality,” observed Anjal Prakash, climate expert and a professor at Indian School of Business, Hyderabad.
“India, especially its northern part, reflects intensifying trends where heatwaves worsen air pollution issues. Prompt action is crucial, requiring accelerated adoption of renewables, green finance, and equitable policies in line with climate COP commitments — and any delay could lead to irreversible consequences,” warned Prakash, a lead author of the United Nation’s Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, which will be part of next UN report on climate change.
“The countries seeing the greatest increase in energy needed for cooling are predominantly lower- to middle-income nations in the tropics and subtropics, while wealthier northern countries are the ones benefitting from reduced energy needed for heating,” reads the report.
“It is no longer new information that India will experience increasingly severe heatwaves. What is critical now is how we adapt. Can we develop a robust early warning system for heatwaves that is seamlessly linked to health portals, decision-support systems for resource management, and platforms for citizen information? Equally important is ensuring that such a system meaningfully translates forecast uncertainty into actionable management decisions” opined Subimal Ghosh, an weather scientist from IIT Mumbai and an UN report author.