A wasted year, inadequate pledges leading the world to a climate disaster: UN report

The world has wasted a crucial year – the last 12 months – in its pursuit to keep the global temperature rise within the limit of 1.5 to 2 degree C as mandated by Paris agreement; and is on course to an unrealistic 2.4-to-2.6-degree C temperature rise by the end of current century; states a UN report published today in Nairobi, Kenya.

Any temperature rise beyond the agreed level is expected to trigger disaster for the global community.

The report – Emissions Gap report 2022 prepared by United Nations Environment Programme – states, “unprecedented cuts needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years”.

The world is already witnessing series of climate change triggered impacts with about 1.1-degree temperature rise since 1850 -1900, the period from when the human actions have started to push up ambient temperature significantly and considered global benchmark.

“Despite a decision by all countries at the 2021 climate summit in Glasgow, UK (COP26) to strengthen Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) … progress has been woefully inadequate … a wasted year” claims the report. NDCs are voluntary declarations from the countries about their emission cut targets.

It further stated that “NDCs submitted this year take only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 (carbon di oxide) equivalent, less than one per cent, off projected global emissions in 2030”. Carbon di oxide is the major greenhouse gas and often the cumulative figure of all the greenhouse gases together are expressed as CO2 equivalent.

Climate pledges inadequate

“Climate pledges leave the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.4 to 2.6 degree Celsius (and) current policies alone would lead to a 2.8°C hike” it warned reminding that “45 per cent is needed for limiting global warming to 1.5°C”, considered the safe level for major part of the global community.

The report shows that though all countries need to cut emission the onus is on rich industrialised countries led by United States whose per capita emission is about 15 tonnes CO2 equivalent; while India’s comparative statistic is around 2 tonnes.

“This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us, all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.

The scientist stated in unequivocal terms that the time is over to make incremental changes, and “only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster.”

Hope hangs in balance

UN report however has expressed hope that the situation can still be retrieved to an extent if the world leapfrogged its emission cut actions quickly.

It underlined that “transforming the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems would help to avoid climate disaster.”

“In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs and additional net zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8°C increase, so there is hope” further says the report while admitting that “this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets”.

Net zero target, a concept came up during Glasgow summit, is a long-term target to turn overall emission to zero. While United States and United Kingdom had set 2050 as ‘net zero’ target year, India has set a 2070 target; but most climate experts have termed the timelines of little consequence at the face climate emergency the world is facing now.

“The shocking statistic is borne out every day from what we witness and experience as losses and damages, like those in Sunderbans, caused by climate disasters on an unprecedented scale. It is time to end the toxic dependency on fossil fuels and for rich countries to pay up their fair-share of finance” observed Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy, climate action network (CAN) international to The Plurals on Friday evening.