A cyclonic circulation is brewing in Bay of Bengal, to affect in second week of May: IMD

A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal in early May, according to a forecast made by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.

As of now, IMD has predicted only the formation of a low pressure area; various models predict that the circulation may turn into a severe cyclone in the second week of May. The system will be named as cyclone ‘Mocha’ if it intensifies into a cyclonic storm.

“A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over south east Bay of Bengal around 06 th May, 2023. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region during subsequent 48 hours (May 7 and 8)” pointed out the IMD forecast under head ‘Tropical Weather Outlook’; a copy of which is with The Plurals.

Though IMD is yet to spell out the possible route of the movement  of the cyclonic circulation; experts are not ruling out West Bengal coast to be affected; especially with most cyclones generated in the region now heading in that direction according to a recent World Bank analysis. Incidentally, the majority of recent cyclones in the region, from Amphan in 2020 to Asani in 2021 to Yaas in 2022, had landfall in the month of May.

Most models are indicating initial northwestwards movement of the cyclonic circulation with northeastwards recurvature over central Bay of Bengal indicating that Orissa and Bengal coasts may face the impact as well as Bangladesh coast. The issue was discussed also in Nabanna on Tuesday. “The issue of the possible cyclonic circulation was mentioned during the routine pre monsoon meeting chaired by chief secretary” said Sanjib Banerjee, deputy director-general of IMD Kolkata.

According to sources Orissa Chief Minister had convened a preparatory meeting on Mocha on Tuesday.

IMD report pointed out that conditions presently are conducive to the formation of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal; with both ‘tropical cyclone’s heat potential’ and ‘sea surface temperature’ over the entire Bay of Bengal reaching optimal values required for such formation.

“Yes, there is a possibility of a cyclonic circulation being generated by May 5 to 7; turning into a low pressure subsequently and is expected to impact till May 11” confirmed Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of IMD to this reporter on Tuesday afternoon.

“As of now a low pressure is likely to form on May 8; but considering the fact that generally cyclones impact in May; always a possibility remains that the circulation may intensify” observed G K Das, head of IMD, Kolkata.

Several models have confirmed the development. IMD-Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts that a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal will intensify into a cyclonic storm on May 9 near the Andaman Islands. It states that the storm will move north-northeast wards towards the east-central Bay of Bengal till May 11, deviating from the Andaman Islands.

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), another weather model , predicts that a low-pressure area will be formed by May 7 followed by a depression.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) suggests that a depression is likely to develop in the south Andaman Sea and the southeast Bay of Bengal followed by a cyclonic storm on May 11.

ECMWF, as well as another model, have predicted that a severe cyclonic storm may affect the region. A severe cyclone blows in the range of 89 to 118 km per hour winds speed.