As India experiences intense heatwaves and heat stress, a new study suggests that the country can avoid power shortages and save consumers up to US dollars 25 billion, equivalent to around INR 2.5 lakh crore, by doubling the energy efficiency of room air conditioners (ACs) over the next decade.
The study, carried out by the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at University of California (UC) Berkeley, points out that India adds 10–15 million new ACs annually, with 130–150 million expected over the next decade.
Titled ‘Beating the Heat: How Air Conditioner Efficiency Standards Help India Avert Power Shortages and Cut Consumer Bills’, a copy of which is with The Plurals, the study says that without policy intervention, ACs alone could drive 120GW of peak power demand by 2030 and 180GW by 2035; over 30% of the projected national peak demand.
AC growth outpacing grid ability
“ACs are already contributing 60 to 70 GW to peak demand, and their growth is outpacing the grid’s ability to keep up after sunset,” says Nikit Abhyankar, the lead author of the study and UC Berkeley faculty member. “Without intervention, we risk blackouts or costly emergency fixes. But with smart policy, we can turn this challenge into a win for consumers, manufacturers, and the grid.”
The 2028 upgrade planned by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency of AC efficiency standards is, according to the study, a welcome move. It raises the minimum threshold of efficiency by 25%, an important milestone. The study recommends that building on this momentum, a long-term roadmap is required that progressively upgrades AC efficiency till the most efficient AC now available in Indian market becomes the minimum standard by 2033.
If such an upgrade continues, it could reduce peak demand by 10GW by 2030 and 47GW by 2035. This is equivalent to roughly 100 large power plants and can save an estimated Rs 8 lakh crore (US dollars 80 billion) in power infrastructure investment, the study says.
Consumers to gain over time
Efficient ACs also will help consumers to cut down costs significantly. The initial cost could be more, but efficient ACs could deliver net savings of Rs 90,000–2,40,000 crore (US dollars 9–25 billion) by 2035. They would be paying for themselves within two to three years through lower electricity bills, says the study.
“A common concern is that more efficient ACs will be more expensive,” says Amol Phadke, co-author and UC Berkeley faculty member. “But our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that efficiency is not the main driver of retail prices. With the right policy support, higher efficiency can go hand in hand with lower costs as manufacturers scale production, supply chains mature, and markets become more competitive.”
The market is already adapting to efficient ACs. Over 1,000 AC models, 15% of all offerings, are already performing above “India’s current 5-star efficiency threshold”, with many produced by domestic manufacturers, says the study. “This is a chance for Indian manufacturers to lead,” said Jose Dominguez, co-author and IECC researcher. “With the right policy signal, they can scale under Make in India and other schemes, positioning India as a global hub for high-efficiency, low-cost ACs.” The study mentions that urban AC ownership in India is still at just 15%, but rising fast. At this moment, the right decisions will shape India’s energy future. “Every AC installed today locks in future electricity use,” said Abhyankar. “We have a narrow window to ensure they’re efficient. If we get this right, India can stay cool, avoid shortages, and lead the world in sustainable and affordable cooling.”
ACs trigger climate change
ACs drive a vicious cycle of climate change and account for roughly 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. “By consuming massive amounts of fossil fuel-generated electricity and leaking potent synthetic refrigerants, ACs actively warm the planet, which in turn spikes the demand for even more cooling,” reads the report.
“On extremely hot days, air conditioning can account for more than 50% of peak electrical loads. Because most power grids still rely heavily on fossil fuels, this massive electricity draw translates directly into massive carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, AC units use chemical coolants such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to absorb and release heat. These gases are incredibly potent greenhouse gases; if they leak during manufacturing, maintenance, or equipment disposal, they can trap thousands of times more heat in the atmosphere than the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide,” explained an expert associated with the study.
Consistent with global trend
Several international studies warn similar AC emission surge trend globally.
A 2024 report published a journal, In our world in data, said that the current mark of 3% of GHG emissions can triple by 2050.The report also highlights its positive impact in countering climate change linked impacts quoting research, that shows that air conditioning (AC) effectively reduces heat mortality during heatwaves. “The 2021 Lancet Countdown report estimated that air conditioning prevented almost 200,000 premature deaths in 2019,” mentioned the report.
“Today, there are around 2 billion air conditioning units in the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that this could almost triple to over 5.5 billion by 2050,” states the report.
Another report published in the frontline global journal ‘Nature’ in February 2026 has warned against that “rising air-conditioning use intensifies global warming”.
“We quantify global AC-related GHGs and associated warming impact under five climate scenarios, separating the contributions of global warming and socio-economic development. In a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP245), cumulative AC-related emissions reach 113.3 GtCO2eq between 2010 and 2050, increasing global-mean temperature by 0.05 °C (0.03 °C-0.07 °C), with only about 8.3% to climate-driven cooling demand,” reads the paper.
“Income inequalities exacerbate disparities in AC use, substantially limiting access to cooling in lower-income regions. While rising incomes reduce this inequality, they increase emissions: income-driven AC growth adds 14–146 GtCO2eq and a further 0.003–0.05 °C of warming by 2050,” even under a not-too extreme scenario.
“These results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access,” the Nature’ report points out.