Cyclone Asani may miss West Bengal but will trigger heavy rains in state

Asani, the first cyclone in 2022 generated in Bay of Bengal, is set to spare West Bengal.

The cyclone, brewing in south Andaman sea of Bay of Bengal, is likely to have its landfall between Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Bhubaneshwar in Orissa by May 10, around 450 km away from West Bengal coast and more than 500 km from Kolkata; indicated Indian Meteorological Department and other sources on Friday.

However IMD officials did not rule out the possibility of a last minute recurve of the cyclone and coming closer to Sunderbans in West Bengal. “We will only be able to know by tomorrow whether the cyclone path may have a last minute recurve on and after May 10” said an IMD expert.

However, prediction on Friday showed that the cyclone is unlikely to cause major damages to West Bengal, though there is possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall in tune of 7 to 11 cm affecting Gangetic West Bengal within May 10 and 13.

“Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over South Andaman sea &neighbourhood, a low pressure area (has been) formed over South Andaman sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal …it is very likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a depression by 07 May evening and further into a cyclonic storm by 08th May evening” reads the IMD release on Friday noon .

The report further states, “it (Asani) is very likely to continue to move northwestwards and reach west central Bay of Bengal off north Andhra­ Odisha coasts by 10th May.”

On May 10, before landfall, the wind speed of the cyclone may reach “70-80 kmph (kilometer per hour) gusting to 90 kmph” over west central and adjoining north west& east central Bay of Bengal.

“We, till now, could track Asani’s likely progress till May 10, and hope that clearer picture will emerge, particularly about its post landfall direction, tomorrow” said a senior IMD official from its cyclone division on Friday afternoon.

As a matter of fact the IMD projection, on Friday, showed that the landfall is likely to happen in between Visakhapatnam and Bhubaneswar, around Srikakulam in Andhra Pradesh; and will be around 450 km away from Sagar island in West Bengal; over 500 km from Kolkata.

The official IMD alert on Friday afternoon however pointed out that “rain/ thunderstorm with lightning and heavy rainfall (07-11 cm) is likely over the districts of Gangetic West Bengal during 10-13 May”.

The heavy rain is likely to impact cultivation in the state. “While most of the boro paddy will be harvested before May 10 and is unlikely to be affected much, jute, vegetables and sesame are likely to be severely affected especially in south Bengal districts”, said a senior agriculture department official in West Bengal.

A senior weather scientist pointed out on social media that there is a possibility of the cyclone getting weaker before the landfall. “IMD and other agencies indicate the formation of a short –lived cyclone in the Bay of Bengal by 8 th May 2022, weakening before landfall between Visakhapatnam and Bhubaneswar on 10-11 th May” said Roxy Koll, climate scientist associated with Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and also an IPCC lead author .

On Friday afternoon, West Bengal chief secretary H. K. Dwivedi, had a meeting with all district magistrates, disaster management department as well as central agencies like IMD and NDRF to assess the preparation in view of the monsoon and extreme weather season coming closer and season’s first cyclone in Bay of Bengal likely to hit soon.