War, extreme weather, economic downturn, social polarisation and Artificial Intelligence (AI): this is the shape of the future forming under the large shadow cast by Donald Trump.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, released on January 14 in Geneva, mentions all these as the risks that the world faces, in the near future and a decade from now. According to a statement from the World Economic Forum, “geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the top risk for the year, followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarization and misinformation and disinformation”.
The 21st edition of this annual report, analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision-making and captures insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide.
“Half of those surveyed anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40 per cent expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled at the very least, while 9 per cent expect stability and 1 per cent predict calm. When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57 per cent expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32 per cent expect things to be unsettled, 10 per cent predict stability and 1 per cent anticipate calm,” the statement says.
Geo-economic conflict
Geoeconomic confrontation is being defined as an economic factor being used to create conflict between nations. The report comes less than two weeks after US President Trump abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3 and brought him to New York. The abduction was followed by Trump’s emphatic call to US business to start extracting oil from Venezuela, which has the highest reserves of oil in the world.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remains essential,” said Børge Brende, president and CEO, World Economic Forum, releasing the report.
“Our annual meeting in Davos, set to start on Jan 19, will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them,” he further said.
“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director, World Economic Forum. “The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
Three timeframes
The report looks at the risks in three timeframes: “immediate (2026); short-to-medium term (the next two years) and long term (the next 10 years)”.
In the immediate future, armed conflict, use of economic tools for conflict and societal fragmentation are emerging together. With these, longer-term challenges from rapid technological development and environmental degradation are great risks. .
“Geoeconomic confrontation tops the near-term rankings, with 18 per cent of respondents viewing it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, as well as being ranked first for severity over the next two years, up eight positions from last year,” says the statement. The report finds “state-based armed conflict” is in the second position for 2026, dropping to fifth position in the two-year timeframe.
In a world of rising conflict, supply chains and global economic stability will be threatened. In the report, 68 per cent of respondents expected a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next 10 years, up four points from 2025.
Economic risks show the largest collective increase in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation risks both surged eight positions, to eleventh and twenty-first respectively, while asset bubble burst rose seven to 18th position. Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility.
In the two-year timeframe, misinformation and disinformation ranked second. Cyber insecurity ranked sixth. “Adverse outcomes of AI show the starkest trajectory, climbing from thirtieth in the two-year horizon to fifth in the 10-year horizon, reflecting anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies and security.” the statement says.
Societal polarisation ranks fourth in 2026 and third by 2028; inequality is in the seventh position in the two- and 10-year outlooks. Economic downturn emerged as the second-most interconnected risk.
Environmental and climate risks at top over the 10-year scale
Over the 10-year timeframe, the top three risks are extreme weather, biodiversity loss and critical change to Earth systems. Three-quarters of the respondents expected a turbulent environmental prospect, the most negative in any category, the report says,
Perhaps one can see the hand of the Trump administration there, too.