A decade after the Paris agreement during COP21 when global leaders unanimously signed a legally binding agreement to cut down greenhouse gas emissions, the world is going in a “wrong direction”, with emission volume increasing, warned a new report published on the sidelines of COP30.
The Global Carbon Budget, published in Belém, has shown that the global fossil fuel-linked emissions are still increasing and are projected to hit 38.1 billion tonnes, an all-time high, during the current year. The latest projected greenhouse gas volume shows a marginal increase over the last year.
The report also pointed out that India is set to contribute 3.23 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas to the global volume in 2025, but its rate of emission growth, though still higher than global average, is gradually declining, mainly due to emphasis on solar power production.
World pushed to brink
The report, prepared by Future Earth and World Climate Research Programme with a research team that included more than 90 other institutions around the world, finds that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase by 1.1 per cent in 2025 compared to 2024. It claims that the remaining carbon budget for keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era benchmark, a Paris mandate, will be exhausted in about four years if the emissions continue at current levels.
The current volume of global greenhouse gas emissions is about 10 per cent higher than in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, the study finds, adding that the trend is “a clear sign that despite progress, the world is still heading in the wrong direction”.
In terms of gross production, China will still be at the top of the emission ladder in 2025 with a projected 12.3 billion tonnes of emissions followed by the US with 5 billion tonnes, says the report, a copy of which is with this correspondent. India comes next at 3.23 billion tonnes, but it has a low per capita generation.
The US, under Donald Trump, is set to record around 1.9 per cent annual increase in greenhouse gas production during 2025, while it showed negative or no growth in the earlier two years.
“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, Exeter, who led the study, adding that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius, amounting to 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be gone before 2030 at the current emission rate.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, however, pointed out: “Efforts to tackle climate change are visible, with 35 countries succeeding in reducing their emissions while growing their economies.”
The report also finds that within the 42.4 billion tonnes of total greenhouse gas emission in 2024, including from fossil fuel and land use, 29 billion tonnes were from atmospheric source and 12.4 from the ocean.
India on right path, can walk faster
The study shows that India produced about 3.19 billion tonnes greenhouse emissions in 2024, which are set to rise about 1.4 percent in the current year reaching 3.23 billion. It produced 3.1 billion tonnes emissions in 2023.
Though India’s emissions increase is still higher than the global average, the report admits to the improvement. “India’s emissions are projected to increase by 1.4%…slower than recent trends,” reads the report, adding that “an early monsoon (that) reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months…combined with strong growth in renewables (has) led to very low growth in coal consumption.” Figures point out that China is following the same curve.
“India is doing reasonably well mainly due to emphasis on solar power, but it can do better by gradually cutting down on its coal dependence. Unless we sharply cut down fossil fuel emissions soon, globally and nationally, the situation may quickly go out of the hand,” warned an India-based climate expert.
Experts, however, pointed out that the latest report also busted the myth of coal being the major emitting source as it contributes 43 per cent to the emissions compared to 55 per cent contributed by oil and gas together.