The recently published UN Emission Gap Report, Off limit, shows that India was the global topper in absolute greenhouse gas emission increase from 2023 to 2024. On a percentage scale, India’s increase was only second to Indonesia during the period. The findings, along with the fact that India has failed to submit its carbon mission plan within the September 30 deadline, is expected to put the country under scanner at COP 30 in Belem, Brazil; opined environmentalists. Belem is set to start in Nov 10.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report finds that the world is on course to a 2.8 degree C rise compared to pre industrial era value, a timeline after which the human induced carbon emission started to dominate. The projected rise, towards the end of the century, is almost double compared to 1.5 degree C global temperature rise target agreed at Paris climate summit.
Experts point out that the emission shoot, if happens on ground, can put a large part of the world and its population under existential crisis including in India.
A whopping 165 million tonnes emission added by India last year
The report, a copy of which is with The Plurals, finds that while China heads the overall global emission ladder followed by United States; India, with addition of 165 million tonnes of greenhouse gas during 2023-24, was the global topper during the period being followed by China and Russia. India’s per capita emission however remains being the lowest among the major economies, though on an upward curve. The report, titled ‘Off target’, is being prepared with the help of around 40 scientists from 21 major scientific institutes across the world.
“Global temperatures are now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C based on full implementation of NDCs … (however) current policies in place put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming …” , reads the report that has also pointed out that Donald Trump driven proposed US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel out part of the progress initially estimated.
Political commitment missing, India including
The global political commitment, at this this critical juncture, hardly looks encouraging as only a third of countries linked to Paris Agreement, covering 63 percent of emissions, submitted new NDCs within the Sept 30 deadline. NDCs, or Nationally Determined Contributions, are climate action plans submitted by the countries as per the commitment to the Paris Agreement for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. These plans are updated every five years.
India has also missed deadlines to submit its NDC with the latest one passing on September 30, 2025
Scanner on India’s climate actions, international finance
“The Report confirms that India is caught in a climate justice trap. While the country’s low per-capita emissions are a moral high ground, its rising total emissions, lack of proper reporting, and non-submission of an NDC 3.0 put the country in a tight spot”, said Harjeet Singh, a global climate activist and the founding director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.
“In all this, we must not ignore the real culprit: the failure of international climate finance. Developing countries are being asked to fund a transition they cannot afford, as international support fails to materialize at the scale required. The pressure on India in Belém will be immense, but it is a deflection from the fundamental broken promise of the Paris Agreement. Without finance, there is no just transition—only a deepening climate injustice,” added Singh.
“UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report is a wake-up call for India. While global projections show marginal improvement, the world remains far from Paris targets — and India, as a growing economy and major emitter, must urgently scale up ambition” observed Anjal Prakash, a professor in Indian School of Business (ISB), Hyderabad, India and one of the authors of UN climate reports. Prakash pointed out that “India needs rapid deployment of renewables, accelerated coal phase-down, electrification of transport, energy efficiency, and robust methane and industrial emissions controls to ensure deep emission; but reminded that India needs predictable, scaled international finance and technology partnerships to fast-track transitions in industry, power and agriculture without compromising development goals.