Report claims India to miss 2022 solar target, Government rubbishes

India’s highly ambitious solar plan, now part of the country’s formal commitment to the United Nations on emission cuts post Prime Minister NarendraModi’s declaration at CoP 26 in Glasgow, has come under scanner as a recently released report has claimed that India is set to miss its 2022 solar target “by 27 percent”.

The report – prepared by JMK Research and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a non-profit working on issues regarding energy markets, trends, and policies – also points out that “on the current trajectory … India’s solar target of 300GW by 2030 will be off the mark by about 86GW”.

However, a senior official in the ministry of new and renewable energy, in an exclusive chat with this reporter, rubbished the claim stating that the country is almost on track in achieving the 100 GW total solar target by 2022; despite admitting that the original solar roof top target of 40 GW will not be met.

The report has identified 25 GW shortfall from the 40 GW rooftop solar target by 2022 as the major reason behind likely missing of the target; while stating that the country is almost on track to achieving the 60GW solar power from big ticket solar utilities with an expected shortfall of just around 2 GW.

“With just eight months of 2022 remaining, only about 50 percent of the 100GW target, consisting of 60GW of utility-scale and 40GW of rooftop solar capacity, has been met” states the report, which points out that while the country presently has about 54 GW installed solar capacity, another 19 GW is likely to be added within this year.

“Even with this capacity addition, about 27 percent of India’s 100GW solar target would be unmet,” says report co-author JyotiGulia, founder of JMK Research.

“We have analysed all the data from government and private sources to reach this conclusion, and even considered the projects in pipeline” says co-author VibhutiGarg, energy economist from IEEFA .

On being quizzed by The Plurals, a senior official in ministry of new and renewable energy countered the “shortfall” claim stating that “the country is almost on track in achieving the 100 GW total solar target by 2022”; while admitting that the break up between large utility generated solar power and roof top power has been rejigged internally with the latter virtually being put to backburner.

“Solar is solar; hence a couple of years back we decided internally to do away with the 60 GW and 40 GW breakup. So far we have installed 54 GW and another 44 GW will be installed by 2022” claimed the ministry representative; not wishing to be named.

While the installed capacity remains same both in the report and government data; the additional amount of solar power to be added differs sharply within the privately published report and government claim; 19 GW to 44 GW.

As for 2030, the ministry expert said that the power ministry and central electricity authority (CEA) in association with a US based agency, has formed a committee to finalise the formula of breaking up the 2030 target – 500 GW – into various power sources within the country’s overall non fossil based power mix.

During Glasgow climate summit in last November, Modi made a commitment that India would “reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030”

Solar experts, not attached to the report, also feel that achieving the 100 GW target in 2022 will be tough.

“In the first place it was an ambitious target. Moreover, economic recession, both during and also before Covid, has rubbed off on the solar growth leading to the current situation” pointed out VaibhabChaturvedi, a solar expert associated with Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

“It’s (read, the lack of adequate solar rooftop installation) a policy failure; while few states have good policy, many have poor policies while others are yet to have any roof top policy at all” said S P Gon Chowdhury, a solar expert and advisor of the union government on solar.