Donald Trump is playing his biggest ever role, by default, in promoting renewable energy and countering climate change. The war that the US and Israel started against Iran is turning out to be a silver lining for solar and other forms of renewables. The conflict is triggering oil price shocks, which, in turn, is leading even the world’s most vulnerable developing countries to embrace a viable alternative to fossil fuel consumption, says a global report.
Almost half of the countries that are a part of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and V20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), a conglomeration of 74 nations from Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific, have achieved a high degree of solar penetration and electric technology, says the report by global think-tank Ember published recently. These countries are home to 1.7 billion people. A copy of the report is with The Plurals.
“Across supply, demand, and connections, climate-vulnerable economies are at the frontier of electrotech uptake today: Namibia (35 per cent) and Togo (18 per cent) in share of solar generation, Jordan and Kyrgyzstan in battery sales, Nepal (70 per cent) and Sri Lanka (64 per cent) in share of EV sales,” says a statement from Ember.
The pace of the developing countries marching towards alternatives to fossil fuel far outshines that of the US, the world’s largest economy.
Cost-effective
The report attributed this advancement to a sharp decline in costs across solar, batteries and electric technologies. These costs have declined 30–95 per cent in the past decade, says Ember. “Solar’s upfront cost is now lower than fossil power, removing a key barrier for capital-scarce economies. Solar is cheaper to build, off-grid systems can outperform grid extension in remote areas, and electric technologies, from transport to cooling, are becoming affordable to households long excluded from modern energy services,” Ember adds.
The transition started some time ago and is happening faster than official data suggests, Ember claims. “In eight out of 10 CVF-V20 countries, solar imports since 2017 are at least three times higher than officially recorded installed capacity, pointing to a rapidly growing but undercounted decentralised energy revolution,” says the think-tank.
Evidence from the 2026 West Asia conflict shows that war-induced disruptions to oil and gas markets have accelerated the global transition toward solar energy and other renewables, as nations seek to strengthen energy security and avoid reliance on volatile, dangerous shipping routes. The surge in energy prices following attacks on oil infrastructure has forced countries to prioritise domestic, renewable alternatives, creating a record increase in solar panel sales in some regions.
On war footing
Evidence accessed by The Plurals shows that war-induced disruptions to fossil fuel supply have accelerated the global transition toward solar energy and other renewables, as nations seek to strengthen energy security by choosing solar. The surge in energy prices following attacks on oil infrastructure has forced countries to prioritise domestic, renewable alternatives, creating a record increase in solar panel sales in some regions. According to Bloomberg.com, governments are shifting towards solar to achieve energy self-sufficiency as the West Asia war has put broadly 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade at risk.
The report says that in the UK, major solar suppliers reported a sharp increase in calls for solar installations within the first few weeks of the conflict. Nations such as Turkey, Jordan and Morocco are finding that their previous investments in solar have shielded them from the worst of the current energy price shocks. The report also claims that consumers are increasingly moving away from fossil fuels, choosing rooftop solar and heat pumps to avoid high energy bills. Due to volatility in gas supply, India has moved to accelerate renewable energy efforts, including prioritising solar projects to combat shortages, even while facing the risk of increased energy demand during summer; expected to be affected by high heat.
Energy economics
“The economics of energy have fundamentally changed,” said Daan Walter, principal at Ember. “Falling solar and battery costs do not just undercut fossil fuels, they begin to price in the billion people the fossil system left behind,” added Walter.
“The old trade-off between climate and development is over. Vulnerable countries are leading a rapid clean energy shift, leapfrogging fossil fuels and even richer nations. Expanding solar and electrification is reducing import dependence, strengthening energy security, and shielding economies from global price shocks,” said Sara Jane Ahmed, managing director and finance advisor of the CVF-V20 Secretariat.
Fossil-dependency
The report points out that CVF-V20 importers spent US dollars 155 billion on net fossil fuel imports in 2024, a major drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves. These countries remain vulnerable to price shocks beyond their control: “if oil averages US dollars 100 a barrel through 2026, their collective import bill could rise by more than US dollars 30 billion,” says Ember. In 19 CVF-V20 economies, net fossil fuel imports account for over half the trade deficit — 79 per cent in Morocco, 67 per cent in Pakistan, and 59 per cent in Bangladesh.
Around 500 million people across these countries still do not have access to electricity, while another 500 million experience unreliable supply. Expanding electricity access offers a direct alternative to traditional biomass use, and also frees economies from long-term fossil fuel dependency and related price volatility.
The other advantage developing countries have is that many of them have not committed to large-scale fossil infrastructure, which leaves them on a more flexible route to electrification.