As the West Asia conflict continues to cause anxiety about energy security and financial stability across the world, a new peer-reviewed study by IPE Global, a global development research organisation headquartered in India, claims that the Indian job market could both win and lose because of the situation.
The victory could be far bigger than the loss – and one for the environment.
According to IPE Global, the West Asia crisis could put 10–12 million Indian livelihoods at risk, but also create 35 million green jobs by 2047.
Titled ‘Paving a Green Transition: A New Social Contract Amid West Asia Crisis’, the study recommends 30 “implementation-ready” policies that could “unlock a USD 42–53 billion funding cushion from India’s existing schemes and help build a USD 15 trillion green economy by 2070”.
Opportunity far outweighs risk
If the war crisis is handled properly, a critical green transition could transform this moment of uncertainty into a catalyst for long-term economic resilience for India, IPE Global feels.
India’s existing framework of schemes, including PM-KUSUM, the National Green Hydrogen Mission, Production Linked Incentives (PLI), the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), PM Pranam, RDSS and Agri Stack, can support this transition. But these schemes continue to operate in silos. The study recommends a convergence across the sectors of agriculture, energy and industry for the transition to unlock the full green potential of the existing framework – and also its economic value.
Convergence is key
“As an Indian organisation echoing the voice of the Global South, we see this study as proof that the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)are not abstract aspirations, they are deeply interconnected, actionable pathways,” said Ashwajit Singh, founder and managing director, IPE Global. “The West Asia crisis has exposed how closely energy security, food security, livelihoods and climate resilience are tied together, and our analysis shows that addressing them in isolation is no longer an option.”
Singh said that when 10 to 12 million livelihoods sit at the intersection of SDG2, SDG7, SDG8 and SDG13, “the only meaningful response is convergence”. “The fact that India can mobilise a USD 42-53 billion funding cushion from within its own scheme architecture, without waiting for external finance, speaks to the maturity of our institutions and the strength of homegrown solutions,” Singh added. An Indian organisation, drawing on Indian policy architecture, charting a pathway can be a model for the Global South.
Numbers too large to be ignored
“The numbers tell a story India cannot afford to ignore. With 85% of our crude oil imported, and 10 to 12 million livelihoods across agriculture, energy and industry exposed to a single geopolitical shock from West Asia, the fragility is real,” pointed out Abinash Mohanty, head, Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global, and the lead author of the study. But so is the opportunity.
“Reframing PM-KUSUM alone, turning farmers into energy producers, could add 50,000 megawatts of agri-solar and 15 lakh green jobs, while cutting 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually. Scale that logic across the 500-gigawatt renewable target, the Green Hydrogen Mission and industrial decarbonisation, and you arrive at 35 million green jobs by 2047 and a USD 15 trillion green economy by 2070,” said Mohanty.
The remarkable part of it, Mohanty stressed, is that USD 42-53 billion is already sitting within the existing scheme architecture — PM-KUSUM, PLI, RDSS, CCTS — waiting for convergence. No new money is required.
Mismatch of states
Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu are most vulnerable to job losses from the West Asia crisis, says the study. But those states may not be leading in green jobs, as that such jobs cluster around green infrastructure: renewable resource endowments, as in Rajasthan and Gujarat, and industrial corridors, as in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.
Moreover, workers most at risk and green job opportunities are not always in the same place, as factors such as skilling and migration policy come into play with the priority given to green investment, such as accelerating PM-KUSUM and natural farming, specifically in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to absorb local job losses, rather than relying solely on national aggregate job creation, says the study.
Key Highlights
- Nearly 10–12 million livelihoods across agriculture, energy, and industry are exposed to shocks arising from the West Asia crisis.
- India imports 85% of its crude oil, making the economy highly vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions.
- The study estimates the potential creation of 35 million green jobs by 2047 and a USD 15 trillion green economy by 2070.
- Existing schemes such as PM-KUSUM, Green Hydrogen Mission, PLI, RDSS, PM PRANAM and CCTS could unlock USD 42–53 billion without requiring major new public spending.
States Most Exposed to Job Losses
- Uttar Pradesh: 3.5–4 million livelihoods at risk; green jobs potential: 4.5 million.
- Bihar: 2–2.5 million livelihoods at risk; green jobs potential: 2 million.
- Kerala: 1.5–2 million livelihoods at risk; green jobs potential: 1 million.
- Tamil Nadu: 1–1.2 million livelihoods at risk; green jobs potential: 3.5 million.
- Rajasthan and Gujarat emerge as major green job hubs with potential for 5 million and 4.5 million jobs, respectively.
- The study highlights a critical challenge: the states most vulnerable to job losses are not necessarily the states where green jobs are likely to be created, creating implications for migration, skilling, and investment policy.