Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report published on Sept 3 in Nairobi, Kenya. Many scientists believe that sustained temperature rise has played a key role in glacier melting contributing to Nepal’s recent mega-disaster.
“The most optimistic scenario will see temperature rise peak at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, above the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C set by the Paris Agreement. Most other scenarios predict higher peaks,” admits the report while pointing out that “it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals in the Paris Agreement.”
The Paris Agreement in 2015 unanimously decided that the global average temperature rise, compared to 1850-1900 benchmark since when human-triggered emission took centre-stage, should be limited to 1.5°C; and under no circumstances should it breach 2°C. An earlier UN scientific report showed how any rise beyond 1.5°C can prove extremely devastating for millions living close to sea and low-land areas as well as to the sustenance of several aquatic flora and fauna.
COP31 must turn this urgency into concrete action. We need to accelerate global electrification, reduce methane emissions from waste, strengthen the climate resilience of cities, and enhance the resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems. At the same time, mitigation and adaptation should advance together. The choices we make today will determine how high temperatures peak, how long they remain there, and how safely we can return to 1.5°C,” said H.E. Murat Kurum, COP31 President-Designate, responding to the just published report.
Overshoot of ambition required
“This summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible. That demands an overshoot of ambition,” said UN secretary-general António Guterres regarding the latest report.
“This pathway would minimise peak temperature rise through immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, on the road to net-zero, and bring down temperatures through long-term net-negative emissions, with carefully governed Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) – the process of removing carbon from the air and storing it through afforestation or other means – an essential part of the mix,” says the report.
The report reminds us that countering the overshoot pathway would involve adaptation actions that reduce vulnerability to the current, expected and unexpected impacts of climate change on societies, communities and economies – although there will likely be limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts, especially if peak temperatures are not minimised.
Extreme heat waves to hit harder
“There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C. Across the globe, extreme heat waves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer – costing more lives and causing deeper disruption,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP.
“Now is the time we must double down on climate action. We can – and must – get on the right path. By cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring the exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and short as possible,” states report.
Devastating impacts to follow
“Above 1.5°C, risks and impacts will intensify with every extra fraction of a degree and every year. Anticipated impacts include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and submersion of Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities. Severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure, and economies is expected,” the report explains.
The report warns that the likelihood of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with the magnitude and duration of higher temperatures. “These include the destabilisation of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the system of currents that moves warm surface water north and cold deep water south, playing a key role in regulating the climate). Some impacts may emerge abruptly, while others will accumulate over time,” it adds.
Global actions required
Considering the scale of the risks and the co-benefits of climate interventions such as a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy – improving air quality and public health, lowering energy costs and increasing access to electricity – the report urges accelerated, collective and global action to get on an overshoot, peak and decline pathway.
“How quickly and strongly this action happens will define the shape and trajectory of the pathway,” reminds the report.
“Strong political will and multilateralism, effective policies, inclusive governance, and finance are all important enabling conditions for action – and equity and justice must underpin all responses. Countries with greater responsibility for climate change should act the fastest with the greatest ambition,” points out the report.
The report also finds that mitigation and adaptation, which are mutually reinforcing, must advance together while being responsive to emerging risks. Interventions that achieve both mitigation and adaptation goals – such as nature-based cooling – should be prioritised.