A poor monsoon is not necessarily a safe one.
Scientists are concerned about communities across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region facing a new, increasingly dangerous monsoon trend: longer dry spells followed by sudden intense rainfall that can trigger flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards.
The concerns follow the recent cloudburst-induced floods in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan and floods caused by intense rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, India, even as below-normal monsoons were predicted in the HKH region.
The region stretches 3,500km across Asia, spanning eight countries: India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. The high-altitude mountain range zone affects the life of up to two billion people and is home to numerous species. It is one of the most climate-vulnerable places in the world.
Below-normal rain forecast for HKH
“The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk,” says Saswata Sanyal, disaster risk reduction specialist at International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a Kathmandu-based global organisation that addresses climate concerns in the HKH region.
“Seasonal forecasts describe average conditions over several months, not what happens in a single valley. Under El Niño, long dry spells can be interrupted by intense local storms that trigger devastating flash floods and landslides,” adds Santal.
Below-normal seasonal rainfall across much of the HKH region was predicted by the Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026, issued by ICIMOD.
El Niño vs other weather events
ICIMOD points out that the contradiction of drier monsoons and intense flooding is rooted in the nature of this year’s monsoon. El Niño is likely to reduce seasonal rainfall across much of South Asia. However, short-lived weather phenomena can temporarily override that to produce intense bursts of rainfall that can cause severe flooding.
As a result, the monsoon is becoming more uneven and unpredictable. The dry stretches are affecting agriculture and water supply and sudden flooding is impacting lives and infrastructure significantly.
Floods have taken their toll on the Indian Himalayas. They have lashed the zone across several states in recent years, taking many lives and destroying homes and land.
Impact on glaciers
Flooding also increases with above-normal temperatures affecting glacier-fed river basins across the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Higher temperatures induce glacier and snowmelt, adding more water to rivers already increased in volume through intense rainfall. More heat also destabilises mountain slopes and moraine-dammed lakes, points out ICIMOD.
“The recent flooding in Pakistan’s Thore Valley demonstrates that hazards in the HKH are no longer occurring in isolation,” said Manish Shrestha, hydrologist at ICIMOD. “Heavy rainfall, glacier melt, unstable slopes and fast-rising rivers can interact to create cascading disasters. Preparedness must reflect these compound risks rather than treating each hazard separately.”
Not separate phenomena
Scientists are advocating to view monsoon-related phenomena holistically, taking drought, heat stress, flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards together rather than considering them as separate scenarios.“Particular attention is needed for settlements along riverbanks, steep mountain slopes and rapidly expanding urban areas across Nepal, northern and north-eastern India, Pakistan and other vulnerable mountain regions, where fragile geology, rising temperatures and expanding infrastructure continue to increase exposure,” says ICIMOD.